Seats to Watch

Here is a summary of the lower house seats that will determine the outcome of this upcoming election.

Division of Gilmore

  • State: New South Wales
  • Margin: 0.7% LIB
  • Incumbent: Ann Sudmalis (running)

Labor’s relative strength in this federal seat is in direct contrast the weakness the state party has displayed at the state-level. While the seats of Kiama and South Coast are held the NSW Liberals by margins of 8.7% and 9.6% respectively, Gilmore’s Liberal margin is only 0.7%. Indeed Gilmore itself has a long history with the Coalition, having been won only once by Labor throughout it’s thirty-five year history.

That the Liberal Party finds itself in such a position likely due to the weakness of the incumbent, Ann Sudmalis. When Sudmalis was first elected to the seat at Labor’s low-ebb in 2013, nevertheless, Gilmore was one of only nine seats to swing to the Labor Party. There are also clear signs that her popularity within the party is waning: the Gilmore Liberal branches have suffered steep declines in membership, and Sudmalis faced a strong challenge to her pre-selection in 2018. In terms of the impact for the election, the question is will the seat’s Liberal-tilt be enough to prevent Bill Shorten doing what Bob Hawke and Kevin Rudd could not?

Division of Batman

  • State: Victoria
  • Margin: 1.0% LAB v. GRN
  • Incumbent: Ged Kearney (running)

It is no secret that Labor won’t miss David Feeney. He was gaffe-prone, absolutely rubbish when it came to paperwork, and completely mismatched as a Labor Right-er in this overwhelming left-leaning district. Labor now hopes that they’ve found a winner with Ged Kearney.

Kearney is much more suited to Batman than Feeney was and proved her worth when she defeated the Green’s Alex Bhathal in the by-election. However, Labor’s federal election battle for Batman is unlikely to be as easy as it was in the by-election. After all, as the state seat of Melbourne will attest, sometimes winning a by-election merely delays the inevitable. Furthermore, unlike in the by-election, the party won’t be able to focus on just local issues and if issues like Adani or refugees dominate the campaign, Labor will have to address them and will likely face the prospect of alienating voters in Batman or voters in Queensland.

Division of Ryan

  • State: Queensland
  • Margin: 9.1% LNP
  • Incumbent: Jane Prentice (retiring)

In 2016 the Queensland Greens won their first seat on the Brisbane City Council and then in 2017 they won their first seat in the Queensland Legislative Assembly. The party is now eager to nab a federal seat to complete their trifecta and they have three options: Brisbane, Griffith, and Ryan.

Ryan might seem like the least logical choice, it is, after all, the least marginal of the three. Despite this, Ryan had the smallest gap between the candidates in second and third place, thus making it easier for the Greens to leapfrog their way into the final round. Green chances might also be helped by some self inflicted wounds by the LNP with Jane Prentice, the incumbent, being surprisingly defeated in a pre-selection. This combined with the relatively steep decline in the LNP vote throughout Queensland and the question mark over the future of Adani, might provide the Greens with the opportunity gain their much sought-after second seat.

Division of Stirling

  • State: Western Australia
  • Margin: 6.1% LIB
  • Incumbent: Michael Keenan (running)

Covering the silver of territory between Perth, Moore, Curtin, and Cowan in Perth’s northern suburbs, Stirling behaves unlike any other marginal seat. It has changed hands six times since its creation in 1955 but only once has it been gained by the party forming government after the election, equal with the amount of times it has been gained by the party losing government.

Polling in Western Australia since 2016 has consistently had the swing towards Labor at, or close to, the level they need to take Stirling away from the Liberal incumbent, Michael Keenan. Nevertheless, Michael Keenan is a high-ranking member in the Turnbull Ministry and the Liberals will be unlikely to give this seat away without a fight, especially given the pessimism around Christian Porter and Ken Wyatt in Pearce and Hasluck. This, added with Stirling’s history of bucking trends, means that the race is likely to be very close and unpredictable.

Division of Hindmarsh

  • State: South Australia
  • Margin:2.8% LIB
  • Incumbent: Nicolle Flint (running)

Looking at the situation on paper, the Liberals should be favoured to retain Boothby. Nicole Flint is one-term MP and the swing to Labor in the state is slight and nowhere near enough for the Liberals to lose it.

However, with Port Adelaide gone and redistributed the Liberal margin in Boothby has been weakened while Labor’s marginal seats, Hindmarsh and Adelaide, have become much safer. The result of this is that Boothby has become the only real battleground between Labor and the Liberals, and Labor can feel much safer about using resources earmarked for Hindmarsh and Adelaide in order to win this seat. A wildcard for this race, however, is the new Liberal state government. The Marshall government should be mid-honeymoon period by the federal election but the four term Labor government managed a swing towards them while Steve Marshall was also one of the most unpopular Opposition Leaders ever elected Premier.